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Probabilistics in Engineering
Last Updated: 2026-02-05 15:25:15
Abstract
The lectures address each year different advanced topics in probabilistic engineering analysis and decision making. During the course the students participate actively in the lectures through literature research, presentations and discussions. In turn each student will give at least one presentation related to the topic during the course. Exercises are developed and solved by the students jointly.
Objective
The aim of the present course is to train the PhD and MSC students in their abilities to study existing literature for the purpose of establishing an understanding of advanced topics in probabilistic engineering and decision making. The students will learn and train their abilities in research and in presenting non-trivial material to other researchers.
Content
Societies are exposed to a variety of natural hazards: floods, avalanches, rock falls, earthquakes, wind storms and so on. The occurrence of these natural hazards may directly cause physical damages to engineering infrastructure and indirectly affect societal activities beyond the damages. Thus, managing risks in society due to natural hazards requires the assessment of the degree of potential dangers due to natural hazards. In present practice, the assessment is made with probability-based approaches employing scientific knowledge on the process of natural phenomena that may lead to the natural hazards as well as historical data related to the natural hazards; the results of the assessment are often presented in terms of hazard maps. These maps represent, for each type of natural hazards, the geographical distribution of the quantile value of the annual maximum distribution of a hazard index, e.g. peak ground acceleration in the case of seismic hazards. Whereas the approaches to the probabilistic assessment of natural hazards may differ between different types of natural hazards, the methodology behind the approaches seems common. However, the methodology commonly used in practice may not be suitable for the applications to consistent engineering decision making; in order to making consistent decisions different types of uncertainties, i.e. aleatory uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties, must be considered consistently in accordance with the general principles for the probabilistic assessment of events subject to epistemic uncertainties. Note that the uncertainties involved in the probabilistic assessments of the hazard events are not only the aleatory uncertainties that represent the randomness of the phenomena dictated by nature, but also the epistemic uncertainties which concern, e.g. our imperfect understanding of phenomena and imprecise modelling of phenomena.
General Information
- Language
- English
- Levels
- DR
- Frequency
- Yearly recurring
Examination
- Type
- ungraded semester performance
Course Components
| Type | Title | Time & Place | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| seminar | Probabilistics in Engineering |
|
2 h weekly |