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701-1226-00L 2 Credits DR , MSC D-USYS , D-ERDW , D-BAUG , D-MAVT , D-INFK , D-MTEC , D-MATH , D-BIOL , D-GESS , D-ITET , D-CHAB

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Inter-annual phenomena and their prediction

Lecturers & Examiners: Prof. Dr. Christof Appenzeller

VVZ CR n/a

Last Updated: 2026-02-05 15:29:49

Abstract

Topics included: The climate system, climate analysis methods (e.g. correlation maps, teleconnections, regimes), inter-annual variability in the tropical (e.g. ENSO, MJO) and extra-tropical region (e.g. NAO, PNA, Blocking), prediction of inter-annual variability (statistical and dynamical methods, seasonal forecasts, applications), inter-annual variability and climate change

Objective

This course gives an overview of the current ability to understand and predict short term climate variability in the tropical and extra tropical region.

Content

The course covers following topics: A brief review of the relevant components of the climate system, the statistical concepts used in climate analysis studies (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis), the role of ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere feedback processes in intra- and interseasonal climate variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) and in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA), the concepts of weather and climate regimes, different prediction methods for short term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction methods, coupled ocean atmosphere models), probabilistic verification methods, predictability studies, examples of end user applications (e.g. seasonal forecasts) and the role of inter-annual climate variability in the current climate change debate.

Resources

Lecture Notes

A pdf version of all the slides will be available

Literature

Many references are given during the lecture.

General Information

Language: English
Levels: DR , MSC
Frequency: Yearly recurring

Examination

Type: session examination
Mode: oral 30 minutes

Course Components

Type	Title	Time & Place	Hours
lecture with exercise	Inter-annual phenomena and their prediction	Thu 08:15-10:00 (CHN E 42)	2 h weekly