Probabilistics in Engineering

Abstract

The lectures address each year different advanced topics in probabilistic engineering analysis and decision making. During the course each student participates actively in the lectures through literature research, presentations and discussions. In turn each student will give at least one presentation related to the topic during the course. Exercises are developed and solved by the students jointly

Objective

The aim of the present course is to train the PhD and MSC students in their abilities to study existing literature for the purpose of establishing an understanding of advanced topics in probabilistic engineering and decision making. The students will learn and train their abilities in research and in presenting non-trivial material to other researchers.

Content

In engineering analysis we are repeatedly faced with the problem that we need to assess, model or predict the behaviour of natural and/or engineered systems. Typical for the systems we are dealing with is that they often are constituted by a close interrelation between processes of nature and actions of humans. Examples of systems in engineering include infra-structure systems such as roadway systems and electricity distribution systems. A main characteristic of the systems is that they are constantly evolving over time under the influence of basic laws of nature and in many cases also the interaction with humans. Generally our understanding of the behaviour of systems is limited; the systems are complex due to their internal structures and may not easily be synthesized. In addition, a large number of the physical and/or human influences which affect the systems behaviour are subject to significant uncertainty. In the development and maintenance of the societal infrastructure as well as in the management of natural and manmade hazards, systems analysis as a focused research area is becoming increasingly important. Systems which are built and maintained to support societal functions are constantly being extended to meet increased requirements. However, whenever a system is extended also the characteristics of the system are changed. Systems may through their internal structure become unstable in regard to influences which are hard to control; this effect may also imply that risks are increased. The understanding and the ability to analyze systems in regard to these characteristics is major factor for improving engineering support of societal decisions.

Resources