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Abstract
Probability and statistics applied to the solution of hydrological problems: extreme events frequency analysis and time series analysis of hydrological data
Objective
1. Statistically characterize water resources data. 2. Perform a frequency analysis to estimate the magnitude of an event having a given frequency of occurrence or to estimate the frequency of occurrence of an event having a given magnitude. 3. Analyze hydrologic time series by identifying the proper model, estimating the model parameters, verifying the assumptions of the model and generating synthetic series that resemble the data.
Content
The course is split into three modules, covering the following topics: Module 1: Probability and statistics applied to the solution of hydrological problems Cumulative distribution functions CDF and probability density function PDF, descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, distribution fitting, goodness of fit tests Module 2: Flood frequency analysis Limiting distributions, estimates of event magnitude based on return period, including confidence intervals, standard procedures for flood frequency analysis, bi-variate analysis Module 3: Time series analysis Analysis of trends, regression, time series analysis models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA, PARMA, ARMAX), model identification and residuals
Resources
Lecture Notes
A copy of the lecture notes will be available on the course moodle page.
Literature
References will be provided on the course moodle page.