Infrastructure Planning

Abstract

This course explains how ideas for infrastructure emerge from strategic planning (macro scale), are taken up in the planning of systems (meso scale) and progress to approval through project evaluation (micro scale). It also provides infrastructure planners with principles for the appraisal of possible projects with and without the explicit valuing of costs and benefits.

Objective

Infrastructure planners aim to ensure that our built environment meets our future needs as effectively as possible. This is challenging because the built environment is a large, complex system that interacts extensively with the natural environment. There is also considerable uncertainty surrounding the future development of both the built and the natural environment, and their future interactions. These uncertain future developments include, for example, societal preferences, changing technologies and climate. Despite this complexity and uncertainty, and considering high-level strategic goals of planning bodies, infrastructure planners must propose and defend specific potential infrastructure improvements. This course provides infrastructure planners with principles to do so, i.e., appraising possible infrastructure modifications using the likely changes to the system dynamics due to the modification and by quantifying the costs and benefits of these changes where possible. This course also provides infrastructure planners with an understanding of how ideas for infrastructure emerge from strategic planning (macro scale), progress through the planning of systems (meso scale), and are approved through project evaluation (micro scale). More specifically, upon completion of the course, students will understand: - how ideas for infrastructure modifications are generated at a strategic level and interpreted in system plans to reach concrete proposals - the principles of system modelling and how these change over time when appraising and defending proposals to modify infrastructure; - the ideas behind deep uncertainty and adaptive planning. - how to use likely changes to the system dynamics, due to external uncertainties and infrastructure modifications, together with the costs and benefits of these changes, to appraise possible modifications.

Content

The course consists of 6 lectures, 4 help sessions and 2 presentation / evaluation sessions. The two-hour weekly lecture period is used as follows: Lectures 1-2 Introduction: These weeks introduce the course and explain how ideas for infrastructure modifications emerge from strategic planning and evolve to the appraisal and approval of specific infrastructure projects. The preliminary evaluations of possible infrastructure modifications for two situations are presented, along with the work expected in this course to deepen the evaluations to a point that a definitive proposal can be made. The requirements for successful completion of the course are discussed. 3-4 System modelling, including evolution over time and valuation: These weeks explain how to develop a system model including the interactions between the built and the natural environment, and how it evolves over time with particular attention to the outcomes to be used to evaluate the possible system modifications as well as the costs and benefits related to these modifications. 5-6 Deep uncertainty, scenarios, robust decision making: These weeks explain how to expand system models to include models of the uncertain variables and how they change over time. Multiple scenario projections (i.e., potential future conditions) will be used to estimate and evaluate the system’s outcomes. Analytical procedures can then be applied to identify what uncertainties and scenarios could be more relevant to planning (i.e., the conditions that represent opportunities or vulnerabilities in the system). 7-8 Adaptive planning / Real options: These weeks explain how to expand the system model to include the proposed infrastructure modifications (and associated future modifications if appropriate) and how they are envisioned to meet future needs. They discuss how to consider when the modifications are to happen and how to identify if the infrastructure following the modifications is considered robust or flexible or something in between. They also discuss how to identify the indicators to be used to trigger the modifications, as well as the triggering values, including consideration of the lag time between triggering a modification and when it is likely to occur. 9-10 Making a case for appraisals without and with valuation: These weeks discuss how to use the likely changes to the system dynamics due to the possible modifications and quantifying the costs and benefits of these changes where possible to make arguments for and against the implementation of infrastructure modifications. 11 This week is focused on making a proposal for the infrastructure modification and adaptive plan that should be selected for the project and why, using outcomes and costs and benefits. It includes proposing a modification schedule, keeping in mind both time and the evolution of system condition over time 12-13 These presentation/evaluation sessions are focused on the sharing of key planning insights found during the analysis in comparison with what was known before. Students will present their work and discuss with the lecturers and the class. 14 This lecture will consist of a wrap-up of the course contents, and a number of presentations giving ideas of these principles can be used in more advanced analysis required in real world situations. The course uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The quantitative analysis required in the project requires the use of Python, and an understanding of Excel.

Resources