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363-1161-00L 3 Credits MSC D-MTEC
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Methods of Macroeconomic Forecasting

Lecturers & Examiners: Dr. Samad Sarferaz
It is highly recommended to take 363-0570-00L Principles of Econometrics and 363-0565-00L Principles of Macroeconomics first.
VVZ CR n/a

Last Updated: 2026-06-01 11:31:18

Abstract

This block course introduces students to the multivariate time series toolkit — vector autoregressions, large scale simultaneous equation systems, state space models, and machine learning nowcasts — used by central banks and research institutes to forecast and analyze macroeconomic activity. Intensive computer labs let students build real time forecasts and policy scenarios.

Objective

After completing this course, students will be able to • independently implement vector autoregressions, large scale simultaneous equation systems, state space models and machine learning nowcasting techniques in R to produce real time macroeconomic forecasts; • evaluate point and density forecasts; • systematically design conditional policy scenarios under alternative assumptions about energy prices, exchange rates, monetary policy and fiscal policy; and • effectively communicate forecast results and quantified uncertainty through oral presentations tailored to decision makers.

Content

Course Content Overview This intensive block course comprises three consecutive modules that blend theory and hands on practice, giving you a solid grounding in modern macroeconomic forecasting techniques. R (and optionally Python) serves as the primary software environment for all exercises and projects. ________________________________________ Block 1: Methods Boot Camp (2 days) Over two days, you will master the core multivariate time series toolkit used by professional forecasters: • (Vector) autoregressions & simultaneous‐equation systems Bayesian estimation and forecasting • State space models Kalman filtering and smoothing, dynamic factor extraction, and time varying parameter frameworks for capturing common trends and structural change. • Machine learning nowcasting techniques • Each topic is paired with computer labs where you implement these methods on real Swiss and euro area datasets. ________________________________________ Block 2: Forecast Project Presentations (2 days) In small teams, you will: • Define a real time forecasting exercise for a macro variable (e.g., GDP, inflation or exchange rates). • Apply forecasting approaches from Block 1. • Present and defend your results in a short live presentation (10-15 min + Q&A). This collaborative segment emphasizes both technical rigor and effective communication. ________________________________________ Block 3: Written & Computer Exam (1 day) ________________________________________ Key Details Prerequisites: Principles of Macroeconomics and Principles of Econometrics; basic familiarity with R. Resources: Lecture slides, lab scripts and datasets are distributed via Git repository. By the end of this block course, you will be equipped to design, implement and critically assess multivariate forecasting models—and to communicate your insights confidently to both technical peers and policy making audiences.

General Information

Language
English
Levels
MSC
Frequency
Yearly recurring

Examination

Type
graded semester performance
60 minute written examination

Registration & Places

Max Places
20

Course Components

Type Title Time & Place Hours
lecture Methods of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Block course
  • 02.10 Date 10:15-16:00 (WEV H 326)
  • 03.10 Date 10:15-16:00 (WEV H 326)
  • 20.11 Date 10:15-14:00 (WEV H 326)
  • 21.11 Date 10:15-14:00 (WEV H 326)
  • 12.12 Date 10:15-12:00 (WEV H 326)
20 h semesterly

Offered In