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701-1226-00L 2 Credits DR , MSC D-USYS , D-MATH , D-INFK , D-ITET
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Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

Lecturers & Examiners: Prof. Dr. Christof Appenzeller
VVZ CR n/a

Last Updated: 2026-06-01 11:33:15

Abstract

This course provides an overview of the current ability to understand and predict intra-seasonal and inter-annual weather and climate variability in the tropical and extra-tropical region and provides insights on how operational weather and climate services are organized.

Objective

Students will develop an understanding of the key atmospheric and oceanic processes involved and gain experience in analysing and predicting variability from weekly to interannual scales. Hands-on exercises will enable them to apply their knowledge and interpret real-time weather and climate forecasts. Students will also learn how operational weather and climate services are organised, and how scientific developments can improve these services.

Content

The course covers the following topics: Part 1: - Introduction, some basic concepts and examples of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability - Weather and climate data and the statistical concepts used for analysing weather and climate variability (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis) Part 2: - Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) - Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking systems, NAO, PNA, regimes) Part 3: - Prediction of sub-seasonal and inter-annual variability (statistical methods, probabilistic ensemble prediction systems, weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts, seamless forecasts) - Verification and interpretation of probabilistic forecast systems - Climate change and inter-annual variability Part 4: - Scientific challenges for operational weather and climate services - A visit to the forecasting centre of MeteoSwiss Part 5 (on going): - Current Weather & Climate discussions Exercises Various exercises involving performing tasks using an online analysis system are integral parts of the lecture.

Resources

Lecture Notes

A pdf version of the slides will be available athttp://www.iac.ethz.ch/edu/courses/master/modules/interannual-phenomena.html

Literature

References are given during the lecture.

Learning Materials (Links)

General Information

Language
English
Levels
DR , MSC
Frequency
Yearly recurring

Examination

Type
session examination
Mode
oral 30 minutes
The exercises are an integral part of the learning material and learning process.

Course Components

Type Title Time & Place Hours
lecture with exercise Inter-Annual Phenomena and Their Prediction
  • Thu 08:15-10:00 (CHN E 46)
2 h weekly

Offered In