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Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation
Last Updated: 2026-02-05 16:08:41
Abstract
The course introduces the concepts of predictability, probability, uncertainty and probabilistic risk modelling and their application to climate modeling and the economics of climate adaptation.
Objective
Students will acquire knowledge in uncertainty and risk quantification (probabilistic modelling) and an understanding of the economics of climate adaptation. They will become able to construct their own uncertainty and risk assessment models (in Python), hence basic understanding of scientific programming forms a prerequisite of the course.
Content
The first part of the course covers methods to quantify uncertainty in detecting and attributing human influence on climate change and to generate probabilistic climate change projections on global to regional scales. Model evaluation, calibration and structural error are discussed. In the second part, quantification of risks associated with local climate impacts and the economics of different baskets of climate adaptation options are assessed – leading to informed decisions to optimally allocate resources. Such pre-emptive risk management allows evaluating a mix of prevention, preparation, response, recovery, and (financial) risk transfer actions, resulting in an optimal balance of public and private contributions to risk management, aiming at a more resilient society. The course provides an introduction to the following themes: 1) basics of probabilistic modelling and quantification of uncertainty from global climate change to local impacts of extreme events 2) methods to optimize and constrain model parameters using observations 3) risk management from identification (perception) and understanding (assessment, modelling) to actions (prevention, preparation, response, recovery, risk transfer) 4) basics of economic evaluation, economic decision making in the presence of climate risks and pre-emptive risk management to optimally allocate resources
Resources
Lecture Notes
Powerpoint slides will be made available.
Literature
Many papers for in-depth study will be referred to during the lecture.
Learning Materials (Links)
- Documents
- climada - the open-source model
General Information
- Language
- English
- Levels
- MSC , NDS
- Frequency
- Yearly recurring
Examination
- Type
- graded semester performance
Registration & Places
- Max Places
- 50
Course Components
| Type | Title | Time & Place | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| lecture |
Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation
Lectures start 2nd week of the semester.
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|
2 h weekly |
| exercise |
Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation
Excercises start 3rd week of the semester.
|
|
1 h weekly |
Offered In
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General Electives (Students may choose General Electives from the entire course programme of ETH Zurich - with the following restrictions: courses that belong to the first or second year of a Bachelor curriculum at ETH Zurich as well as courses from GESS "Science in Perspective" are not eligible here. The following courses are explicitly recommended to physics students by their lecturers. (Courses in this list may be assigned to the category "General Electives" directly in myStudies. For the category assignment of other eligible courses keep the choice "no category" and take contact with the Study Administration ( ) after having received the credits.))
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MAS in Sustainable Water Resources (The Master of Advanced Studies in Sustainable Water Resources is a 12 month full time postgraduate diploma programme. The focus of the programme is on issues of sustainability and water resources in Latin America, with special attention given to the impacts of development and climate change on water resources. The programme combines multidisciplinary coursework with high level research. Sample research topics include: water quality, water quantity, water for agriculture, water for the environment, adaptation to climate change, and integrated water resource management. Language: English. Credit hours: 66 ECTS. For further information please visit: )
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Elective Courses (Electives: 6 credits has to be achieved.)
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