Risk and Safety in Civil Engineering

Abstract

Risks Hazards and Causes of Failures, Basic Probability Theory, Descriptive Statistics, Uncertainty Modelling, Estimation and Model Building, Hazard Identification and Logical Trees, Reliability of Technical Components, Methods of Structural Reliability, Time Variant Reliability, Reliability Analysis of Structural Systems, Bayesian Decision Analysisand Probabilistic Nets, Aspects of Experiments Planning, Assessment of Existing Structures, Risk Based Inspection Planning, Risk Acceptance Criteria

Objective

Ziel dieser Vorlesung ist das Wecken und Vertiefen der Fähigkeit, in Fragen von Risiko und Sicherheit. Nach weiterer individueller Vertiefung sollen die Absolventen fähig sein, Risiko-, Zuverlässigkeits- und Entscheidungsanalysen bezüglich Fragestellungen des Bauwesens sachkundig anzugehen, Risiken differenziert zu bewerten und angemessene Risiko-mindernde Massnahmen vorzuschlagen.

Content

The ultimate task of the structural engineer, e.g. in connection with the design, assessment, maintenance and strengthening of structures can be seen as being "to identify the best solution" under the given constraints to safety, functionality, time and budget. However, many uncertain factors, such as inherent natural variability associated with the behaviour of loads and material characteristics together with incomplete knowledge about the considered problems, greatly complicate the decision making. Such problems may be treated within the framework of Bayesian decision theory, risk assessment and modern structural reliability theory. In the daily practice the standard codes for the design and assessment of structures provide sufficient guidance to the engineer in regard to normal decision situations. However, for situations and problems not covered by the design codes it is necessary to be able to analyse the effect of the prevailing uncertainties together with the potential consequences of the decisions in more detail for the case at hand. This is e.g. the case when structures made of new types of materials and structures which due to their size or geometry fall beyond the application domain of the codes. Moreover methods of structural reliability provide the only possible way to update the safety of existing structures based on tests and observations on the condition of the structures and their past performance. Finally decision theory and methods of structural reliability provide the basis for the calibration of modern design codes. In the course the notion of risk is explained and it is shown by examples to what degree different types of engineering activities are associated with risks. Thereafter a basic introduction to probability theory is given and the subject of probabilistic modelling in structural engineering is addressed in some detail. Techniques for the identification and analysis of hazards are provided including FMECA, HAZOP, Risk Screening, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and decision/event tree analysis. Subsequently methods of probability estimation are explained including classical reliability analysis and modern time invariant and time variant reliability methods for components and systems. Thereafter more refined aspe

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