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701-1252-00L 3 Credits MSC , NDS D-USYS , D-BAUG , D-INFK , D-MATH , D-PHYS , D-ERDW , D-GESS , D-ITET
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Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation

Lecturers & Examiners: Prof. Dr. Reto Knutti, Prof. Dr. David N. Bresch
Number of participants limited to 50. Waiting list until 05.03.2021.
VVZ CR n/a

Last Updated: 2026-02-05 15:54:43

Abstract

The course introduces the concepts of predictability, probability, uncertainty and probabilistic risk modelling and their application to climate modeling and the economics of climate adaptation.

Objective

Students will acquire knowledge in uncertainty and risk quantification (probabilistic modelling) and an understanding of the economics of climate adaptation. They will become able to construct their own uncertainty and risk assessment models (in Python), hence basic understanding of scientific programming forms a prerequisite of the course.

Content

The first part of the course covers methods to quantify uncertainty in detecting and attributing human influence on climate change and to generate probabilistic climate change projections on global to regional scales. Model evaluation, calibration and structural error are discussed. In the second part, quantification of risks associated with local climate impacts and the economics of different baskets of climate adaptation options are assessed – leading to informed decisions to optimally allocate resources. Such pre-emptive risk management allows evaluating a mix of prevention, preparation, response, recovery, and (financial) risk transfer actions, resulting in an optimal balance of public and private contributions to risk management, aiming at a more resilient society. The course provides an introduction to the following themes: 1) basics of probabilistic modelling and quantification of uncertainty from global climate change to local impacts of extreme events 2) methods to optimize and constrain model parameters using observations 3) risk management from identification (perception) and understanding (assessment, modelling) to actions (prevention, preparation, response, recovery, risk transfer) 4) basics of economic evaluation, economic decision making in the presence of climate risks and pre-emptive risk management to optimally allocate resources

Resources

Lecture Notes

Powerpoint slides will be made available.

Literature

Many papers for in-depth study will be referred to during the lecture.

Learning Materials (Links)

General Information

Language
English
Levels
MSC , NDS
Frequency
Yearly recurring

Examination

Type
graded semester performance

Registration & Places

Max Places
50

Course Components

Type Title Time & Place Hours
lecture Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation
Lectures start 2nd week of the semester. The course will initially start online. Further details will be sent by e-mail and can be found on moodle . The room reservation remains in place if face-to-face teaching is possible after the Easter break.
  • Mon 08:15-10:00 (LFO C 13)
2 h weekly
exercise Climate Change Uncertainty and Risk: From Probabilistic Forecasts to Economics of Climate Adaptation
Excercises start 3rd week of the semester.. The course will initially start online. Further details will be sent by e-mail and can be found on moodle . The room reservation remains in place if face-to-face teaching is possible after the Easter break.
  • Mon 10:15-12:00 (LFO C 13)
1 h weekly

Offered In